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Being Inspired in Public Sector Planning

As a leader in a government Ministry, Department, or Agency (MDA), you’re deeply committed to creating strategic plans that make a significant impact. However, it’s easy to get caught up in bureaucratic compliance, which can divert you from making the meaningful contributions you desire. So, how can you truly make a difference?

For those outside of government, the hundreds of pages of planning guidelines sent to MDAs may seem overwhelming, prompting the question: “How does anything get done?” Having provided strategic planning services to organisations in Jamaica for over two decades, I understand this challenge.

The guidelines are well-intentioned and represent hard work, but sometimes, a collection of good ideas doesn’t lead to a single great one. This is often the case with the instructions MDAs receive for completing their corporate business plans.

As a result, it can be tempting to simply comply with the minimum requirements, especially under the watchful eye of a demanding Permanent Secretary. Unfortunately, this approach falls short of capturing the true power and potential of strategic planning. So, as a Managing Director, CEO, or Director General, how can you create plans that truly transform our nation’s future? Here are a few strategic planning frameworks that you might not find in official documents but can make a big difference.

Engaging Employees and Stakeholders

Your organisation’s strategic plan should be more than just a document that preserves the status quo. It should serve as an opportunity to articulate a visionary future.

Consider the original intent behind Vision 2030, conceived sixteen years ago. Although there are only five years left to its conclusion, the inspiration it once provided has waned, overshadowed by bureaucratic processes. What remains are short-term targets that feel increasingly out of reach.

But remember the initial goal: to inspire citizens with a bold vision. The framers envisioned a Jamaica that would be the top choice for everyone to live in—a transformative vision during a time of recession-induced cynicism.

As a government leader, you should think beyond 2030. In your next strategic planning exercise, aim for more than just compliance.

Instead, strive for a pre-emptive, game-changing strategic plan that stands on its own. A plan with a grand vision could help you fulfil the dreams of our citizens while attracting the best minds, the bravest souls, and the hardest workers to your cause.

In other words, if your strategic plan is an opportunity to achieve great things for those in need, you’re on the right path. These individuals are likely looking for a vision and turning to you for leadership.

But don’t stop there. Some of your employees are ready to contribute more than just the minimum. This is your chance to engage them fully.

However, if being aspirational and visionary isn’t enough, consider another approach that’s more immediate.

Handling Threat Zones

As an expert in your field, you have the ability to anticipate emerging trends—trends that might be invisible to the average Jamaican citizen but are clear to you. You have strategic foresight.

More importantly, you can foresee where small threats might converge into larger, more significant challenges—what we call Threat Zones.

Take COVID-19, for example. Countries like New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam anticipated the pandemic and acted accordingly.

Similarly, as a leader in your MDA, you can identify approaching Threat Zones. When these arise on your radar, you should act. The best response? Develop a pre-emptive, game-changing long-term strategic plan.

Consider the meme circulating that suggests this year may be the coolest one for the rest of our lives. That it, we only have hotter days and months ahead. While you can do little to prepare Jamaica for this in the short term, a strategic plan with long-term outcomes—such as those looking ahead to 2055—could make a significant difference.

The advantage of this forward-thinking approach is that you’ll be better prepared for whatever national vision replaces the current one. Your proactive planning will benefit citizens and inspire your team to think big.

This approach can also help your team move beyond mere compliance. Now is the time for leaders to develop the kind of selfless strategic foresight that Jamaica needs.

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Ep 19 – Enduring the Messy Stages of Strategic Planning

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit longtermstrategy.substack.com

Your company is in the middle of a strategic planning project. Things are going according to plan but there are several competing schools of thought about the future of the organization.

In discussions, voices are being raised as competing ideas are shared. You are beginning to feel nervous because the opinions cannot be reconciled easily. Should you intervene or allow it to run its course, even though things are looking like a mess?

Tune into this episode to hear from me and my special guest, Chris Fox, as we tackle this wicked problem together.

I’m Francis Wade and welcome to the JumpLeap Long-Term Strategy Podcast.

Here is a video of the excerpt from this episode, for free subscribers.

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End-of-Tenure CEOs: A Hidden Challenge to Long-Term Value

In the business world, the end of a CEO’s tenure often brings about significant challenges. As CEOs near the conclusion of their careers, a troubling pattern emerges: their actions can sometimes undermine long-term value and pose serious risks to the organization. This phenomenon is rooted in several behavioral tendencies that intensify over time.

The “Yes-Men” Syndrome

One notable issue is the increasing presence of “Yes-Men”—colleagues who are excessively compliant and unwilling to challenge the CEO’s decisions. This situation is not necessarily a result of intentional manipulation.

Critics argue that some CEOs deliberately remove independent voices to create an environment where their authority remains unchallenged. This view paints CEOs as Machiavellian figures who prioritize their power above the organization’s best interests.

However, a different perspective suggests that the problems faced by long-tenured CEOs are natural consequences of their extended time in office. A 2013 Harvard Business Review article by Luo, Kanuri, and Andrews describes a pattern of declining performance among leaders in their later years, likening it to a natural change in “seasons.”

The Role of Ego

Ego plays a significant role in this dynamic. CEOs, driven by their egos and a relentless pursuit of results, become more competitive as they advance in their careers. This drive, while necessary for reaching the top position, can become counterproductive. Over time, ambitious managers, fueled by their unchecked egos, surround themselves with sycophants who reinforce their decisions rather than challenge them.

The famous dictum by Lord Acton, “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely,” is well-known among modern leaders. However, we should extend this insight to include the notion that power also corrupts invisibly. A CEO’s growing power can blind them to certain realities, leading to poor decisions and a lack of succession planning.

For instance, some CEOs fail to prepare for their succession or accept misguided advice from insiders. Others may go to great lengths to conceal corruption. Fortunately, there are exceptions. Some CEOs actively seek out individuals who can provide honest feedback, appointing them as “court jesters.” In medieval times, jesters had the unique role of criticizing the monarch, often delivering difficult messages in a palatable manner.

The Importance of Enablers

While internal change agents can introduce opposing viewpoints, companies also need strong board members who can effectively challenge the CEO. Many board members, despite being intelligent and ethical, lack the skills to push back against the CEO. They often fail to seek out and defend unpopular opinions that could safeguard the company’s long-term value. As a result, CEOs find themselves in an echo chamber of agreement.

The case of Olympus, the Japanese camera company, illustrates the consequences of this dynamic. In 2011, a fairly new COO, Michael Woodford, was promoted once again in an attempt to silence him as the leadership hid a long-standing financial scandal. When Woodford refused to ignore the misconduct, he was abruptly fired. His subsequent whistleblowing led to the removal of the entire top management team, ultimately saving the company.

Proactive Measures for Boards and Executives

To prevent such scenarios, proactive measures are essential. Board members and executives should receive training to help them recognize and address their blind spots. They need to understand that their judgment can decline over time and learn to communicate effectively to counteract this deterioration. By fostering awareness and providing tools for effective communication, companies can mitigate the risks associated with long-tenured CEOs.

Viewing the challenge as inevitable, rather than personal, can shift the organizational mindset. This perspective reduces the likelihood of a respected CEO unintentionally becoming a liability. Therefore, intervention through training and awareness can safeguard long-term value and maintain organizational integrity.

In conclusion, the end of a CEO’s tenure presents unique challenges that can threaten long-term value. By understanding the natural tendencies that arise with extended leadership and taking proactive measures to address them, organizations can navigate these challenges effectively.

Empowering board members and executives to challenge the status quo and recognize their blind spots is crucial for sustaining long-term success.

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Three Horizons for Strategic Thinking: A Guide for Long-Term Planning Advocates

As a proponent of long-term thinking in your company, you’ve likely encountered resistance. You may feel isolated, struggling to articulate the value of strategic foresight to colleagues focused on immediate concerns. This guide aims to provide you with a framework to effectively communicate the importance of long-term strategic planning (LTSP) and engage others in this crucial mindset.

The Challenge of Long-Term Thinking

You’ve probably experienced this scenario: In a meeting, you highlight a future your colleagues can’t see. The potential long-term consequences seem obvious to you. Unfortunately, your team, preoccupied with urgent problems, lacks the energy to consider your strategic viewpoint. They opt for the quick satisfaction of immediate resolutions.

Afterwards, you realize that fundamental issues remain unaddressed. It feels like you’re only discussing surface-level solutions without questioning the underlying approach.

If this resonates with you, you’re not alone. Many forward-thinking professionals struggle to convey the importance of LTSP. But there’s a way to bridge this gap and bring others into long-term thinking: the Three Horizons Framework by Curry, Hodgson and Sharpe.

Horizon 1: Understanding the Decay of Current Offerings

Every organization provides value through its products or services. However, it’s crucial to recognize that these offerings have a limited lifespan. Each day brings you closer to the point where your current solutions become obsolete.

Consider the photography industry. Until the 2000s, companies like Kodak and Fuji thrived selling film. Today, the average consumer has no interest in this product.

This decay in demand is a universal truth in business, illustrated by the following curve:

The key question is: How long will your current strategic fit last?

As an LTSP advocate, you’ve likely considered this. Now, you have a visual representation to share with your colleagues, helping them grasp this concept more easily.

Horizon 3: Recognizing Future Opportunities

While managing current operations is crucial, it’s equally important to look for signs of future trends. These “faint signals” can be found in emerging technologies, evolving customer needs, new regulations, environmental changes, and various other areas.

By paying attention to these signals, your team can craft narratives about potential futures. This foresight defines the third horizon:

Many companies overlook these disruptors by failing to plan far enough ahead. As an LTSP proponent, you can encourage your team to do more than passively observe these changes. Instead, position your organization to influence and shape these future scenarios.

Horizon 2: Bridging Present and Future

To transition from current offerings to future opportunities, your organization needs a bridge – this is Horizon 2:

These are initiatives that may not represent your ultimate vision but serve as stepping stones towards it. Developing these transition strategies is best done in strategic planning retreats, where all departments can contribute their insights.

Integrating the Three Horizons

When effectively implemented, the Three Horizons Framework allows your organization to manage current operations, develop transition strategies, and prepare for future scenarios simultaneously:

This integrated approach demonstrates how long-term imperatives can and should inform immediate actions.

Conclusion: Empowering Long-Term Strategic Planning

By using the Three Horizons Framework, you now have a powerful tool to illustrate the importance of long-term thinking to your colleagues. This approach allows you to:

1. Visually represent the lifecycle of current offerings

2. Highlight the importance of future-focused initiatives

3. Demonstrate how to bridge present operations with future opportunities

4. Show how all these elements work together in a cohesive strategy

Remember, you’re not alone in advocating for LTSP. Many successful organizations embrace this approach, recognizing that preparation for the future is key to long-term success.

Use this framework to spark meaningful discussions about your company’s future. By doing so, you’re not just planning for tomorrow – you’re shaping it.

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Ep 18 – When a Written Strategy Document Lacks a Strategy

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit longtermstrategy.substack.com

Your company has a long history of putting together strategic plans. And you have diligently read them all in a search to understand the intentions of prior leaders.

But as you look them over you are concerned. There are lots of todo lists, action items, and budgets, but the underlying plan seems to lack something important – a strategy.

You can’t quite explain why this is the case, but you can tell when that intangible quality is missing. Perhaps, there should be a better way to tell than just raw instinct, but how?

Tune into this episode to hear from me and my special guest, Alexis Savkin, as we solve this wicked problem together.  You can access more of his articles on strategic planning at https://bscdesigner.com.

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Ep 17 – How to Find Time for Strategic Planning

You are in charge of implementing your company’s new strategic plan. It includes some brilliant new ideas which should shake up your industry, and even introduce the world to a new category of products and services.

But you are a bit wary because prior strategic plans barely made it off the PowerPoint pages. They weren’t implemented due to a common complaint – no-one had the time.

You have every reason to be worried, but what should you do about the problem?

Tune into this episode to join me in tackling this wicked problem from two perspectives at once…task management and strategic planning.

I’m Francis Wade and welcome to the Task Management & Time Blocking Podcast and the JumpLeap Long-Term Strategy Podcast.

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit longtermstrategy.substack.com/subscribe

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Strategy for Jamaican Sports Federations

You love your national sport. Seeing the Jamaican (or West Indian) flag soar above a global stage fires you up. But you also see that in football and cricket, we’ve fallen as a country. Could it be related to a lack of long-term thinking?

When the West Indies men’s cricket team dominated the world in the 1980s and 90s, other countries envied them. They all tried to catch up, but Australia’s response was unique.

They decided to invest in youth cricket like never before. Why? They recognized a long-term problem. Quick fixes wouldn’t solve it permanently.

Fast forward a decade, and their success since then shows their planning at work. While we in the West Indies struggle to find talent, revive interest, and fix governance problems, Australian dominance continues.

Simply put, they built a system to win international cricket.

Meanwhile, the West Indies continues to fail, except for occasional successes. We get lucky sometimes and win, but those wins happen despite our system, not because of it.

I’m not criticizing our setup; I’m not an expert. But if we learn from Australia’s long-term focus, can we apply it to our national football team?

We Jamaicans got lucky and competed in the World Cup once, but a sustainable system is still missing there. More importantly, is there something our sporting federations can do differently in their planning? Here are three ideas if you’re part of one.

1. Pick a Target Year and Visualize

First, set a planning horizon 10-30 years ahead, and name it your Target Year. Be careful; picking too close or too far has downsides.

If you pick a year too close, it becomes selfish. You’ll be pushing aside future generations. Also, if you’re too aggressive with your short-term goals, others won’t believe you. As a result, they won’t take action.

On the other hand, if you pick a year too far away, your plan could become irrelevant as soon as its developed. There won’t be enough urgency for stakeholders to respond.

But the key is not just choosing the right year. The idea is to commit to milestones between now and your target date. These milestones should create the right mindset on a large scale. They should inspire people of all ages to make the sacrifices needed for world-class performance.

After setting a Target Year, create a vivid vision or end-game. This isn’t just a vague “vision statement” but a numeric, measurable list of outcomes. Together, they describe your desired future.

Within this space, generate up to three unique but alternative visions. Then, choose one.

Many organizations make a big mistake by stopping here.

2. Strategize Backwards

To connect your vision to reality, you need to backcast, or plan backward from your desired future to the present. As you do, you’ll correct two common anomalies.

The first anomaly is that some of your initial, visionary outcomes are probably unrealistic, and some will be overly ambitious.

The second anomaly is when the Target Year itself has to change to make the plan work.

Don’t remove these anomalies randomly. Your team needs to find a careful balance between aspirations and reality. As such, this is a task for insiders and can’t be outsourced.

If your team fails to achieve this balance, you’ll lose fan support. For example, if they sense that the planning team said yes to too many things without making tough choices, they may turn away.

Your plan needs to make logical sense.

3. Build Social Support

Sporting federations need widespread fan support, but the old way of “selling” your plan to people doesn’t work anymore.

Instead, the modern approach is to involve fans in the process from the beginning. But this doesn’t mean filling a room with hundreds at every meeting.

The key is to incorporate both divergent and convergent activities in your schedule.

Divergent activities are invitations to gather more input. They benefit from broad participation.

However, convergent activities involve making tough decisions using that same input. This is a consolidation step where you summarize and draw conclusions.

Use both in a sort of dance, and you’ll bring your fans into your long-term thinking and the planning needed to achieve success in your sport.

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Ep 16.5 Is There Actually a Valid “Just Keep Things Going” Strategy?

Your organization is about to conduct its annual strategic planning process. From all indications, this will be another “business as usual” effort, intended to check the box. The time horizon, after all, will only extend for four years, maximum.

No-one expects anything out of the ordinary to emerge from it – this is a ritual in which prior performance is improved on by a few percentage points.

But are expectations too low? And if this to be the norm each year, should a plan require more than just a single person making simple edits?

Is there a problem with this approach?

Tune into this episode to join me in tackling this wicked problem. Enjoy this complimentary episode of the podcast.

P.S. Remember to register for the Long-Term Strategic Planning Conference here – https://strategyconf.fwconsulting.com

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit longtermstrategy.substack.com/subscribe

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Ep 16 Getting Deep Stakeholder Buy-In to Strategic Plans

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit longtermstrategy.substack.com

You are starting a fresh strategic planning effort but you are concerned that executives are not doing enough to engage stakeholders. From prior experience you know that plans can fall on their face once they are announced.

But what should be done to ensure effective implementation? You have heard a number of ideas, but will they fit the culture of your company? This seems to involve more than just completing a successful retreat and printing out copies of a document.

You need your own approach to engage stakeholders or risk the whole thing becoming a wasted exercise.

Tune into this episode to hear from me and my special guest, Anthony Taylor, as we solve this wicked problem together.

I’m Francis Wade and welcome to the JumpLeap Strategy Long-Term Podcast

Watch the Excerpt below. The full version in video and audio is available to subscribers.

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Unveiling the Foundation: The Assumptions Behind Your Strategic Plan

In the realm of strategic planning, crafting a comprehensive roadmap for the future can be both exhilarating and daunting. Your team invests time, resources, and creativity to develop a plan that promises to revolutionize your industry and propel your organization to new heights. However, despite meticulous planning, unforeseen disruptions can quickly render your strategic aspirations obsolete. In such moments of uncertainty, understanding the underlying assumptions behind your plan becomes paramount. Here’s why:

Recognizing the Transient Nature of Strategic Plans

Strategic planning often conjures images of meticulously outlined steps and detailed implementation strategies. However, beneath the surface of these plans lie a myriad of assumptions – assumptions that shape the very foundation of your strategic vision. These assumptions emerge during intense brainstorming sessions, fueled by a blend of data, anecdotes, and expert opinions. Yet, amid the flurry of ideas and debates, it’s impossible to validate every assumption conclusively. Instead, strategic decisions are often based on a combination of informed judgment and intuition.

To mitigate the risk of overlooking critical assumptions, it’s imperative to foster an environment of inclusivity and collaboration during planning sessions. By ensuring that all key stakeholders are actively engaged in the process, you can harness a diverse range of perspectives and insights, strengthening the foundation of your strategic plan.

Capturing and Monitoring Assumptions

One of the greatest challenges in strategic planning lies in effectively capturing and monitoring the underlying assumptions that underpin your plan. While participants may leave planning sessions with a sense of confidence in their strategy, the dynamic nature of business environments means that assumptions are subject to constant change. Without a mechanism to track these assumptions, your team may fail to recognize emerging trends or shifts in market dynamics until it’s too late.

To address this challenge, consider implementing a strategy map – a visual representation of the cause-and-effect relationships between key assumptions and strategic objectives. This tool serves as a reference document, allowing your team to monitor the interconnectedness of assumptions and identify potential areas of vulnerability. Additionally, conducting regular “pre-mortem” exercises – where teams anticipate potential points of failure and weak assumptions – can help proactively mitigate risks and enhance strategic resilience.

Preparing for Disruptions

In today’s volatile business landscape, disruptions are not a matter of “if,” but “when.” Whether it’s a competitive threat, technological advancement, or regulatory change, your strategic plan must be robust enough to withstand unforeseen challenges. By embracing a mindset of preparedness and adaptability, your team can navigate turbulent waters with confidence.

Encourage open dialogue and constructive dissent within your team, empowering individuals to challenge assumptions and explore alternative scenarios. By fostering a culture of resilience and agility, you can equip your organization to weather storms and seize opportunities amidst uncertainty.

In conclusion, the success of your strategic plan hinges not only on its vision and objectives but also on the assumptions that underpin it. By acknowledging the transient nature of assumptions, capturing them effectively, and preparing for disruptions, you can enhance the resilience and effectiveness of your strategic planning efforts.