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As a proponent of long-term thinking in your company, you’ve likely encountered resistance. You may feel isolated, struggling to articulate the value of strategic foresight to colleagues focused on immediate concerns. This guide aims to provide you with a framework to effectively communicate the importance of long-term strategic planning (LTSP) and engage others in this crucial mindset.

The Challenge of Long-Term Thinking

You’ve probably experienced this scenario: In a meeting, you highlight a future your colleagues can’t see. The potential long-term consequences seem obvious to you. Unfortunately, your team, preoccupied with urgent problems, lacks the energy to consider your strategic viewpoint. They opt for the quick satisfaction of immediate resolutions.

Afterwards, you realize that fundamental issues remain unaddressed. It feels like you’re only discussing surface-level solutions without questioning the underlying approach.

If this resonates with you, you’re not alone. Many forward-thinking professionals struggle to convey the importance of LTSP. But there’s a way to bridge this gap and bring others into long-term thinking: the Three Horizons Framework by Curry, Hodgson and Sharpe.

Horizon 1: Understanding the Decay of Current Offerings

Every organization provides value through its products or services. However, it’s crucial to recognize that these offerings have a limited lifespan. Each day brings you closer to the point where your current solutions become obsolete.

Consider the photography industry. Until the 2000s, companies like Kodak and Fuji thrived selling film. Today, the average consumer has no interest in this product.

This decay in demand is a universal truth in business, illustrated by the following curve:

The key question is: How long will your current strategic fit last?

As an LTSP advocate, you’ve likely considered this. Now, you have a visual representation to share with your colleagues, helping them grasp this concept more easily.

Horizon 3: Recognizing Future Opportunities

While managing current operations is crucial, it’s equally important to look for signs of future trends. These “faint signals” can be found in emerging technologies, evolving customer needs, new regulations, environmental changes, and various other areas.

By paying attention to these signals, your team can craft narratives about potential futures. This foresight defines the third horizon:

Many companies overlook these disruptors by failing to plan far enough ahead. As an LTSP proponent, you can encourage your team to do more than passively observe these changes. Instead, position your organization to influence and shape these future scenarios.

Horizon 2: Bridging Present and Future

To transition from current offerings to future opportunities, your organization needs a bridge – this is Horizon 2:

These are initiatives that may not represent your ultimate vision but serve as stepping stones towards it. Developing these transition strategies is best done in strategic planning retreats, where all departments can contribute their insights.

Integrating the Three Horizons

When effectively implemented, the Three Horizons Framework allows your organization to manage current operations, develop transition strategies, and prepare for future scenarios simultaneously:

This integrated approach demonstrates how long-term imperatives can and should inform immediate actions.

Conclusion: Empowering Long-Term Strategic Planning

By using the Three Horizons Framework, you now have a powerful tool to illustrate the importance of long-term thinking to your colleagues. This approach allows you to:

1. Visually represent the lifecycle of current offerings

2. Highlight the importance of future-focused initiatives

3. Demonstrate how to bridge present operations with future opportunities

4. Show how all these elements work together in a cohesive strategy

Remember, you’re not alone in advocating for LTSP. Many successful organizations embrace this approach, recognizing that preparation for the future is key to long-term success.

Use this framework to spark meaningful discussions about your company’s future. By doing so, you’re not just planning for tomorrow – you’re shaping it.

Thinking Big and Going Long

As a corporate or national leader, you’re deeply concerned about the future of your enterprise or country. But you may notice something is missing—a sense of shared hope and engagement. You ask yourself, “Why?”

The last time many Jamaicans felt truly hopeful about the future was around 1962, just before independence. I wasn’t born then, but elders recall the power of that moment: a future brimming with promise.

Before independence, leaders like Marcus Garvey, Sam Sharpe, and Norman Manley courageously articulated a vision for Jamaica. They took these stands, despite knowing they wouldn’t see the outcomes in their lifetime, or even in the coming decades. We revere them because they made unselfish sacrifices for the greater good, even when the odds were against them.

Today, we long for leaders with similar clarity and conviction—those not swayed by greed, political gain, or self-interest. Instead, we’ve grown accustomed to pointing fingers; for many, leadership has become synonymous with corruption. Ironically, however, even flawed leaders can still “think big and go long.” They can look to our National Heroes as models. So, where can they start?

Understanding What Really Motivates People

Humans are creatures of imagination, and our motivation is deeply influenced by our vision of the future. This imagined future shapes our experience both now and in the long run.

Take, for example, the motivation of new employees. Initially, they’re excited. Over time, however, as they encounter challenges and setbacks, their enthusiasm fades. In environments that are merely transactional—where work is treated as nothing more than an exchange for money—this disillusionment runs deep.

Today’s younger employees, especially Gen Z, are making it clear: “That’s not enough.” They demand engagement that’s driven by purpose. To meet these expectations, leaders must do two things: think big and go long.

Thinking Big and Going Long

Most leaders don’t genuinely think big or long. They may talk about game-changing goals, but they only want results within the fiscal year, their CEO term, or before the next IPO or election. In the past, this approach might have worked.

But today, employees, customers, and citizens are quick to recognize shallow promises. In a world flooded with “Buy Now!” messages, people have learned to ignore hollow pitches and easy promises. Leaders who try to “sell” people on short-term impossibilities come across as self-serving, and the result is widespread contempt.

The essential truth? “Thinking big” requires “going long” at the same time. For example, Richard Williams developed a 25-year tennis plan for his daughters, Venus and Serena, long before they were born. GraceKennedy did something similar with its 2020 Vision.

Contrast this with the cautionary tales on the CompanyMan YouTube channel, where the creator explores the decline of companies like K-Mart and Nokia. Each story illustrates the dangers of short-term thinking—loss of market share, plummeting shareholder value, and mass layoffs.

These same mistakes happen on a national scale as well. Right now, around 30-40 national plans worldwide—like Vision 2030 Jamaica and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals—are nearing their deadlines, and many are off track.

However, modern employees want more than just their leaders’ long-term thinking and big goals.

Freeing People from Past Disappointments

You may notice that even when there’s good news, some employees stay stuck in cynicism. Previous disappointments have hardened their outlook, making it difficult for them to feel optimistic.

One way to address this is through radical truth-telling. For example, I visited South Africa during the Truth and Reconciliation Commission hearings in the 1990s. The broadcasted testimonies were harrowing, recounting torture and murder. I could only watch in short bursts.

But the principle was powerful. Truth-telling can be liberating. In our case, the forward of Vision 2030 Jamaica, written 15 years ago, put it bluntly:

> “Partly due to our neglect of long-term issues, our nation has suffered from a number of inadequacies… Previous planning efforts floundered… Jamaicans have expressed a clear wish to break out of this vicious cycle of low performance and build a quality society.”

When organizations or nations engage in these difficult, honest conversations, they show that a troubled past doesn’t have to define the future. It allows employees and citizens alike to hope—and ultimately frees them to think big and go long once again.